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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."