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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.